Sharing insights elevates their impact (2022)

Sharing insights elevates their impact (1)

11 October 2022

By Calum MacRae, Director, Supply Chain & Technology,S&P Global Mobility

With energy prices in Europe skyrocketing, placing businessbottom lines in triage mode, a harsh winter could place certainautomotive sectors at risk of being unable to keep their productionlines running.

The combined black swan events of the COVID-19 pandemic and theRussian invasion of Ukraine have already stretched the automotivesupply line - especially in regard to semiconductors. Now, someOEMs and suppliers with energy-intensive manufacturing processesmay face extensive pressure in terms of energy costs in the comingmonths.

As a result, potential manufacturing losses from Europe-basedOEM final-assembly plants could reach more than 1 million units perquarter, starting in the fourth quarter of 2022 through theentirety of 2023, according to forecasts by S&P Global Mobilityand S&P Commodity Insights.

Starting in the fourth quarter of 2022 through 2023, quarterlyproduction from Europe-based auto manufacturing plants was forecastto be in the 4-4.5-million-unit range per quarter - predictingmoderate growth. However, with potential utility restrictions, thatOEM output could be reduced to as low as 2.75-3 million units perquarter.

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As seen with past regional events - Ukraine-sourced neonshortages hampering semiconductor deliveries, and the 2011 Japanearthquake and tsunami crippling supplies for microcontrollers,mass-airflow sensors, and Xirallic paint pigments - losing onecrucial piece in the global supply chain can bring the automotivemanufacturing industry to a crunching halt.

The consensus forecasts for a cold, wet European La Niña winter,combined with energy shortages, could have a similar effect. Therecent leaks in the subsea Russian pipelines to Europe adds to riskand the likelihood that our model is directionally correct.

S&P Global Mobility is forecasting significant supply chaindisruption from November through spring. We also anticipatedisruption of the traditional just-in-time supply model due to somesuppliers implementing a schedule of working fractional-months on a24/7 setup - which can be more energy-efficient than traditionalweekly shifts due to the latter's higher start-up and shut-downenergy costs.

We consider mandatory energy rationing to be the basis for apessimistic scenario for the region's auto producers and suppliers.For an industry already struggling with low inventories of vehiclesin dealer showrooms, an additional crisis could be incapacitatingon a global scale.

European suppliers send parts, components, and modules to OEMsaround the world - thus impacting all automakers, not just regionalones. And U.S. retail customers could also suffer, as EU/UKmanufacturing plants are currently exporting about 7,000 units permonth to American shores - but shipped 213,750 vehicles in theentirety of 2019, according to Global Trade Atlas.

"If you look through the supply chain - particularly wherethere's any metallic structure forming through pressing, welding orextrusion - there's a tremendous amount of energy involved," saidEdwin Pope, Principal Analyst, Materials & Lightweighting atS&P Global Mobility. "Total energy usage in these companiescould be up to one-and-a-half times what we're seeing in vehicleassembly today. Anecdotally, we're hearing that some of thismanufacturing capacity is becoming so uneconomic that companies aresimply shutting up shop."

Sharing insights elevates their impact (2)

Before the energy crisis, gas and electric costs were arelatively inconsequential component of a vehicle's bill ofmaterials, typically less than €50 per vehicle. Now with costincreases ranging from €687 to €773 per vehicle, energy costscompound an already perilous position for the sector - given theimpact raw material price increases have already had on the nascentelectric vehicle value chains. Both serve to undermine margins in amarket where cost increases will be difficult to pass on tocustomers already facing food and energy inflation.

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Across the European Union, energy constraints could result innations or regions enacting emergency policies to counter thisthreat. OEMs also have a certain level of countervailing power withthe regional utility companies and via governmental lobbyingoperations.

"However, the pressure on the automotive supply chain will beintense, especially the more one moves upstream from vehiclemanufacturing," Pope said. "Upstream supplier parts productionconstraints could impact OEM volumes. As a result, we see a risk ofOEMs halting shipments of completed vehicles due to shortages ofsingle components, which are not necessarily coupled tocountry-level energy policies."

How countries will be able to react
S&P Global Mobility has modeled the impact of the loomingenergy crunch on 11 European countries - each a significant vehicleproduction location - to assess which countries' automotivesegments are best positioned to withstand the severe energyheadwinds this winter.

The model borrows from macroeconomic aggregate demand frameworksin assessing consumption, investment, and government expenditure towhich an assessment of energy mix and gas storage is added. Basedon a quantitative assessment of available information, sixdimensions are scored on a relative basis between 1 and 5, with 5being the best score.

Sharing insights elevates their impact (3)

The effect the energy crisis could have on a country's economicperformance and societal wellbeing can also be connected to acountry's industrial footprint. The most energy intensiveindustrial sectors are aviation and shipping, but their energyconsumption is tied almost exclusively to oil, where priceincreases have not been of the magnitude seen in gas andelectricity. Industrial sectors that see high usage of gas andelectricity include chemicals and metallic products, both of whichare intrinsically tied to automotive manufacturing.

Individual countries' policy responses in addressing energyimbalances will also impact comparative economic performance. Suchpolicies will determine how a country's energy mix impacts thecomparative advantage of vehicle build locations in Europe.

That impact is shown by some counterintuitive results in theS&P Global Mobility analysis. Germany has relied on Russia forits gas supplies and is phasing out nuclear power, both of whichwould seem to place that nation in a precarious energy situation.However, Germany benefits from its government's famous fiscalrectitude, which gives it relatively more budgetary headroom toride out the energy storm. Further, the country benefits from arelatively low reliance on electricity generation derived from gasand from being in a decent position from a gas storageperspective.

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The model also reveals how crucial government intervention inhousehold and industry support has been for the UK. In the past fewweeks, the UK government has announced measures adding up to someGBP200 billion for consumers and industry - accounting for nearly7% of the country's GDP and more than double the level of itsnearest rival Italy. Without such support, the UK would be near thebottom of the table, in a position similar to that of Italy - whichsuffers doubly owing to its debt and budget deficit position aswell as its low energy self-sufficiency and reliance on gas powerfor electricity generation.

The chart also brings into focus the relative position of acountry's macroeconomic position vis-à-vis energy and macroeconomicpolicies. Italy is one of the more vulnerable economies, and thisweakness will be further compounded by the relative costdisadvantage its manufacturing base faces.

Not all countries will be impacted equally by the energy marketimbalances roiling markets in Europe. That said, it is clear thatan era of abundant, and cheap, energy is over - and this hasshocked policymakers into varying degrees of response.

The impact of energy prices
Since first quarter 2020, energy prices in Europe have soared.According to S&P Global Mobility data for four key markets -Italy, Germany, France and the UK - gas prices have increased by anaverage of 2,183%, a factor of nearly 23. The wholesale electricityprice increased by an average of 1,230% or a factor of more than13.

Sharing insights elevates their impact (4)

The impact of the surge in prices is shown starkly in thesubsequent chart. Applying energy prices from the start of 2020 andcomparing with the current situation permits a view of theadditional cost that has been borne by OEMs. The subsequent chartshows the gas and electricity cost increase for a typical referencevehicle across France, Germany, and Italy.

For high-energy intensity sectors like automotive manufacturing,S&P Global Mobility has developed a methodology, leveragingproprietary data assets, to estimate the impact on vehiclemanufacturing's bottom line due to escalating energy costs.

Sharing insights elevates their impact (5)

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To allow for an apples-to-apples comparison in examining typicalenergy usage in each stage of final assembly, the single referencevehicle used was a Volkswagen Golf MKVIII, tipping the scales at ashade under 1,370 kg, and considering local energy mix.

Sharing insights elevates their impact (6)

There are some caveats to this methodology. Carmakers sometimessource their energy with different mixes than the country wherethey operate, while we assume identical energy sourcing in ourmodel. Automakers also tend to lock gas and electricity prices withutilities and use different financial instruments to reduce theirexposure - to the point they often end up reporting significantwindfalls from these hedging bets, as seen recently with the likesof Volkswagen and Daimler. In our model, we assume they are payingwholesale spot prices.

Ominous signs for the supplier tiers
Despite these warning signs, some OEMs protect their supplier baseby indexing the price of key commodities monthly for theirsuppliers, which means that some suppliers are not locked intocontracts at an inelastic price point through the length of thecontract. However, this practice is not completely widespread.

"As you go further upstream, the sheltering the OEM providesbecomes less," Pope said. "Additionally, smaller companies in Tiers2 and 3 of the supply chain are likely to neither have theresources nor the operational sophistication required for hedginginstruments, forward contracts and the like."

The situation Europe faces may be only transient. Much willdepend on how the Russia-Ukraine conflict unfolds. However, alonger-term transformation of the energy picture could result instructural consequences for the industry. This would see productionschedules, manufacturing footprints and sourcing strategies beingdiscarded and replaced with a shift to locations where the energycost burden is least. While Europe faces a winter of discontentnow, more disruption could follow. This will bring fundamentalupheaval to the region's auto sector and beyond.

In the way that labor cost used to be a key determinant ofmanufacturing location, energy mix and self-sufficiency couldbecome key elements of future sourcing decisions.

Sharing insights elevates their impact (7)

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This article was published by S&P Global Mobility and not by S&P Global Ratings, which is a separately managed division of S&P Global.

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Words such as novice, intermediate, proficient or expert can be assigned to your personal and professional attributes to demonstrate the level of experience you have with a particular skill.

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